alpinist-route-forecast

原始内容

---
name: "alpinist-route-forecast"
description: "Route-aware weather forecasts for alpine climbs. Terrain-adjusted timing, multi-day camp-to-summit itineraries, three-source verification, descent conditions, and pace calibration that learns your speed over time."
---

# Alpinist Route Forecast

Route-aware weather forecasts for alpine climbs — terrain-adjusted, camp-to-summit, multi-source verified.

## When to Use

- "What's the weather for Rainier DC on Saturday?"
- "I'm climbing Baker Coleman-Deming next Tuesday"
- "Forecast for Forbidden West Ridge this weekend"
- "Is Stuart Cascadian Couloir good this week?"
- "Here's my GPX for tomorrow's climb" *(user attaches file)*
- "I'm climbing something with 6,000 ft gain over 7 miles, summit coords 46.85, -121.76"
- "Which day is better — Saturday or Sunday?"
- "We started at 2 AM and summited at 7:30" *(post-trip calibration)*

## Requirements

- **Python 3** (standard library only — no pip installs)
- **Internet access** for weather APIs
- Script: `mountain_weather.py` (included in this skill)
- Peak database: `peak_routes.json` (included in this skill)
- Alpinist profile: `alpinist_profile.json` (auto-created on first calibration)

### Weather Sources (all free, no API keys)

| Source | Coverage | Range | Used for |
|--------|----------|-------|----------|
| Open-Meteo | Global | 16 days | Primary hourly forecast at each waypoint |
| NOAA/NWS | US only | 7 days | Summit verification (automatic) |
| Mountain-Forecast.com | Named peaks worldwide | 7 days | Optional named-peak verification |

## Privacy & Data Disclosure

- **Open-Meteo**: Route coordinates (lat/lng from GPX or peak database) are sent as query parameters. No account, no personal data beyond coordinates.
- **NOAA/NWS**: Summit coordinates are sent to api.weather.gov. A generic User-Agent header is included (required by NOAA). No personal data.
- **Mountain-Forecast.com**: A single HTTP request fetches the public forecast page for a named peak. No coordinates or personal data are sent.
- **Alpinist profile** (`scripts/data/alpinist_profile.json`): Stored locally only. Contains trip pace data (times and route names). Never transmitted externally.
- **Peak database**: Contains only publicly available geographic data (coordinates, elevations, route descriptions).

## Forecast Confidence

| Days Ahead | Confidence | Sources Available |
|-----------|-----------|-------------------|
| 1–3 days | 🟢 HIGH | Open-Meteo + NOAA + Mountain-Forecast |
| 4–7 days | 🟡 MODERATE | Open-Meteo + NOAA + Mountain-Forecast |
| 8–16 days | 🟠 LOW | Open-Meteo only |
| 17+ days | ❌ Unavailable | No reliable forecast data |

**Always tell the user the confidence level.** For LOW confidence forecasts, recommend checking again closer to the date.

## Input Modes

### 1. Named Route (no files needed)

```bash
python3 scripts/mountain_weather.py --route rainier-dc --date 2026-07-28
python3 scripts/mountain_weather.py --route baker-np --date 2026-08-01 --pace elite
python3 scripts/mountain_weather.py --list-routes
```

Available routes (32 peaks — PNW + California 14ers):

**Pacific Northwest (16):**
- `rainier-dc` — Disappointment Cleaver (2 days)
- `rainier-emmons` — Emmons Glacier (2 days)
- `baker-cd` — Coleman-Deming (2 days)
- `baker-np` — North Ridge (3 days)
- `shuksan-fisher` — Fisher Chimneys (2 days)
- `shuksan-sc` — Sulphide Glacier (2 days)
- `forbidden-wr` — West Ridge (2 days)
- `stuart-nc` — North Ridge (3 days)
- `stuart-cc` — Cascadian Couloir (2 days)
- `adams-south` — South Spur (2 days)
- `hood-south` — South Side/Pearly Gates (1 day)
- `glacier-peak-dc` — Sitkum Glacier (3 days)
- `eldorado` — Eldorado Glacier (2 days)
- `sahale` — Quien Sabe Glacier (2 days)
- `olympus-blue` — Blue Glacier (3 days)
- `st-helens-monitor` — Monitor Ridge (1 day)

**California 14ers (16):**
- `whitney-mt` — Mount Whitney Trail (1 day)
- `williamson-west` — West Side Route (2 days)
- `white-mountain` — Road/Trail (1 day)
- `north-palisade-unotch` — U-Notch Couloir (2 days)
- `starlight-peak` — Milk Bottle Route (2 days)
- `shasta-avalanche` — Avalanche Gulch (2 days)
- `sill-north` — North Couloir / L-Shaped (2 days)
- `mount-russell` — East Ridge (2 days)
- `polemonium-peak` — V-Notch Couloir (2 days)
- `split-mountain` — North Slope (1 day)
- `mount-langley` — New Army Pass (1 day)
- `mount-tyndall` — North Rib (2 days)
- `mount-muir` — South Face (1 day)
- `middle-palisade` — Southeast Slope (2 days)
- `thunderbolt-peak` — Southwest Chute (2 days)
- `winchell-east` — East Couloir (2 days)

### 2. GPX File

```bash
python3 scripts/mountain_weather.py --gpx route.gpx --date 2026-07-28
python3 scripts/mountain_weather.py --gpx route.gpx --date 2026-07-28 --peak "forbidden peak"
```

Works with any GPX file (Garmin, AllTrails, CalTopo, Gaia). The script:
- Detects the summit (highest elevation point)
- Uses ascent portion only (handles out-and-back routes)
- Auto-classifies terrain from slope angle

### 3. Simple Elevation Profile (no file, no route name)

```bash
python3 scripts/mountain_weather.py --trailhead-ft 5400 --summit-ft 14411 --distance-mi 9 \
  --summit-lat 46.8529 --summit-lng -121.7604 --date 2026-07-28
```

For when the user just knows trailhead/summit elevation, distance, and approximate summit coordinates.

## Pace Profiles

| Profile | Vertical Up | Vertical Down | Flat Hiking |
|---------|------------|---------------|-------------|
| `elite` | 1,475 ft/hr | 2,300 ft/hr | 3.4 mph |
| `moderate` | 1,000 ft/hr | 1,640 ft/hr | 2.5 mph |
| `amateur` | 650 ft/hr | 1,310 ft/hr | 1.9 mph |

Default: `moderate`. Use `--pace elite|moderate|amateur`.

### Terrain Adjustments

The script auto-classifies terrain from GPX slope or route database tags:

| Terrain | Slope | Pace Effect | Examples |
|---------|-------|-------------|----------|
| Trail/approach | < 30° | Full speed | Forest trail, meadow |
| Steep snow/scree/glacier | 30–45° | 75% speed | Glacier, snowfield, scree |
| Technical/scramble | > 45° | 45% speed | Exposed ridge, rock scramble, roped |

## Multi-Day Routes

Multi-day routes automatically:
1. Print the itinerary (approach days + summit day)
2. Shift the forecast to **summit day**
3. Forecast only the **camp → summit → camp** portion

The `--date` is the **start date** (Day 1 = approach). Summit day is calculated automatically.

Example: `--route rainier-dc --date 2026-07-28` with a 2-day route → forecasts summit day July 29 from Camp Muir.

## Post-Trip Calibration

After a climb, the user reports actual start and summit times:

```bash
python3 scripts/mountain_weather.py --gpx route.gpx --date 2026-07-28 \
  --actual-start 02:00 --actual-summit 07:30
```

This:
1. Compares actual time to predicted time
2. Calculates a personal pace factor (e.g., 1.1x = 10% faster than moderate)
3. Saves to `scripts/data/alpinist_profile.json`
4. Future forecasts automatically adjust timing

More trips → more accurate personal predictions.

## Output Includes

### Ascent
- Hourly conditions at each waypoint (temp °F, wind mph + gusts, cloud %, precipitation)
- Recommended start time (optimized for best summit weather window)
- Summit conditions + warnings (high wind, precipitation, low visibility)

### Descent
- Conditions at summit, midpoint, and camp during return
- Warnings for afternoon weather changes (thunderstorms, wind, whiteout)

### Verification
- NOAA/NWS hourly forecast at summit (automatic for US)
- Mountain-Forecast.com summit forecast (when `--peak` is specified or auto-detected from route)

## Key Options

| Flag | Description |
|------|-------------|
| `--route <id>` | Named route from database |
| `--gpx <file>` | GPX file path |
| `--trailhead-ft` / `--summit-ft` / `--distance-mi` | Simple mode |
| `--summit-lat` / `--summit-lng` | Summit coordinates (for simple mode or NOAA) |
| `--date YYYY-MM-DD` | Target date (start date for multi-day) |
| `--pace elite\|moderate\|amateur` | Pace profile |
| `--start-hour N` | Override start hour (0-23) |
| `--peak <name>` | Mountain-forecast.com verification |
| `--json` | JSON output |
| `--list-routes` | Show all named routes |
| `--actual-start HH:MM` | Post-trip calibration |
| `--actual-summit HH:MM` | Post-trip calibration |
| `--mf-verify <peak>` | Standalone mountain-forecast check |

## Agent Behavior

1. **Parse the user's intent**: route name, date, pace, whether they have a GPX
2. **Map natural language to flags**:
   - "Rainier DC" → `--route rainier-dc`
   - "Saturday" → calculate the date
   - "I'm slow" → `--pace amateur`
   - "start at 2 AM" → `--start-hour 2`
3. **Run the script** and present the formatted output
4. **Highlight key decisions**: Is the weather good enough? Should they wait a day? Mention the confidence level.
5. **For comparisons** ("Saturday or Sunday?"): run both dates and compare summit conditions
6. **Post-trip**: when user reports times, run calibration and confirm their pace factor

## Limitations

- Open-Meteo underestimates summit winds by 30-50% and can be ±2-4°C on temperature. Always cross-reference with NOAA and Mountain-Forecast.
- Mountain-Forecast.com is scraped HTML — may break if they change their page layout.
- Route database only covers PNW peaks. Users can add their own GPX for any mountain worldwide.
- Terrain auto-detection from slope works best with dense GPX trackpoints. Sparse GPX (few points) may misclassify.
- NOAA is US-only. International climbs get Open-Meteo + Mountain-Forecast only.

name: "alpinist-route-forecast" description: "Route-aware weather forecasts for alpine climbs. Terrain-adjusted timing, multi-day camp-to-summit itineraries, three-source verification, descent conditions, and pace calibration that learns your speed over time."

Alpinist Route Forecast

Route-aware weather forecasts for alpine climbs — terrain-adjusted, camp-to-summit, multi-source verified.

When to Use

"What's the weather for Rainier DC on Saturday?"
"I'm climbing Baker Coleman-Deming next Tuesday"
"Forecast for Forbidden West Ridge this weekend"
"Is Stuart Cascadian Couloir good this week?"
"Here's my GPX for tomorrow's climb" (user attaches file)
"I'm climbing something with 6,000 ft gain over 7 miles, summit coords 46.85, -121.76"
"Which day is better — Saturday or Sunday?"
"We started at 2 AM and summited at 7:30" (post-trip calibration)

Requirements

Python 3 (standard library only — no pip installs)
Internet access for weather APIs
Script: mountain_weather.py (included in this skill)
Peak database: peak_routes.json (included in this skill)
Alpinist profile: alpinist_profile.json (auto-created on first calibration)

Weather Sources (all free, no API keys)

Source	Coverage	Range	Used for
Open-Meteo	Global	16 days	Primary hourly forecast at each waypoint
NOAA/NWS	US only	7 days	Summit verification (automatic)
Mountain-Forecast.com	Named peaks worldwide	7 days	Optional named-peak verification

Privacy & Data Disclosure

Open-Meteo: Route coordinates (lat/lng from GPX or peak database) are sent as query parameters. No account, no personal data beyond coordinates.
NOAA/NWS: Summit coordinates are sent to api.weather.gov. A generic User-Agent header is included (required by NOAA). No personal data.
Mountain-Forecast.com: A single HTTP request fetches the public forecast page for a named peak. No coordinates or personal data are sent.
Alpinist profile (scripts/data/alpinist_profile.json): Stored locally only. Contains trip pace data (times and route names). Never transmitted externally.
Peak database: Contains only publicly available geographic data (coordinates, elevations, route descriptions).

Forecast Confidence

Days Ahead	Confidence	Sources Available
1–3 days	🟢 HIGH	Open-Meteo + NOAA + Mountain-Forecast
4–7 days	🟡 MODERATE	Open-Meteo + NOAA + Mountain-Forecast
8–16 days	🟠 LOW	Open-Meteo only
17+ days	❌ Unavailable	No reliable forecast data

Always tell the user the confidence level. For LOW confidence forecasts, recommend checking again closer to the date.

Input Modes

1. Named Route (no files needed)

python3 scripts/mountain_weather.py --route rainier-dc --date 2026-07-28
python3 scripts/mountain_weather.py --route baker-np --date 2026-08-01 --pace elite
python3 scripts/mountain_weather.py --list-routes

Available routes (32 peaks — PNW + California 14ers):

Pacific Northwest (16):

rainier-dc — Disappointment Cleaver (2 days)
rainier-emmons — Emmons Glacier (2 days)
baker-cd — Coleman-Deming (2 days)
baker-np — North Ridge (3 days)
shuksan-fisher — Fisher Chimneys (2 days)
shuksan-sc — Sulphide Glacier (2 days)
forbidden-wr — West Ridge (2 days)
stuart-nc — North Ridge (3 days)
stuart-cc — Cascadian Couloir (2 days)
adams-south — South Spur (2 days)
hood-south — South Side/Pearly Gates (1 day)
glacier-peak-dc — Sitkum Glacier (3 days)
eldorado — Eldorado Glacier (2 days)
sahale — Quien Sabe Glacier (2 days)
olympus-blue — Blue Glacier (3 days)
st-helens-monitor — Monitor Ridge (1 day)

California 14ers (16):

whitney-mt — Mount Whitney Trail (1 day)
williamson-west — West Side Route (2 days)
white-mountain — Road/Trail (1 day)
north-palisade-unotch — U-Notch Couloir (2 days)
starlight-peak — Milk Bottle Route (2 days)
shasta-avalanche — Avalanche Gulch (2 days)
sill-north — North Couloir / L-Shaped (2 days)
mount-russell — East Ridge (2 days)
polemonium-peak — V-Notch Couloir (2 days)
split-mountain — North Slope (1 day)
mount-langley — New Army Pass (1 day)
mount-tyndall — North Rib (2 days)
mount-muir — South Face (1 day)
middle-palisade — Southeast Slope (2 days)
thunderbolt-peak — Southwest Chute (2 days)
winchell-east — East Couloir (2 days)

2. GPX File

python3 scripts/mountain_weather.py --gpx route.gpx --date 2026-07-28
python3 scripts/mountain_weather.py --gpx route.gpx --date 2026-07-28 --peak "forbidden peak"

Works with any GPX file (Garmin, AllTrails, CalTopo, Gaia). The script:

Detects the summit (highest elevation point)
Uses ascent portion only (handles out-and-back routes)
Auto-classifies terrain from slope angle

3. Simple Elevation Profile (no file, no route name)

python3 scripts/mountain_weather.py --trailhead-ft 5400 --summit-ft 14411 --distance-mi 9 \
  --summit-lat 46.8529 --summit-lng -121.7604 --date 2026-07-28

For when the user just knows trailhead/summit elevation, distance, and approximate summit coordinates.

Pace Profiles

Profile	Vertical Up	Vertical Down	Flat Hiking
`elite`	1,475 ft/hr	2,300 ft/hr	3.4 mph
`moderate`	1,000 ft/hr	1,640 ft/hr	2.5 mph
`amateur`	650 ft/hr	1,310 ft/hr	1.9 mph

Default: moderate. Use --pace elite|moderate|amateur.

Terrain Adjustments

The script auto-classifies terrain from GPX slope or route database tags:

Terrain	Slope	Pace Effect	Examples
Trail/approach	< 30°	Full speed	Forest trail, meadow
Steep snow/scree/glacier	30–45°	75% speed	Glacier, snowfield, scree
Technical/scramble	> 45°	45% speed	Exposed ridge, rock scramble, roped

Multi-Day Routes

Multi-day routes automatically:

Print the itinerary (approach days + summit day)
Shift the forecast to summit day
Forecast only the camp → summit → camp portion

The --date is the start date (Day 1 = approach). Summit day is calculated automatically.

Example: --route rainier-dc --date 2026-07-28 with a 2-day route → forecasts summit day July 29 from Camp Muir.

Post-Trip Calibration

After a climb, the user reports actual start and summit times:

python3 scripts/mountain_weather.py --gpx route.gpx --date 2026-07-28 \
  --actual-start 02:00 --actual-summit 07:30

This:

Compares actual time to predicted time
Calculates a personal pace factor (e.g., 1.1x = 10% faster than moderate)
Saves to scripts/data/alpinist_profile.json
Future forecasts automatically adjust timing

More trips → more accurate personal predictions.

Output Includes

Ascent

Hourly conditions at each waypoint (temp °F, wind mph + gusts, cloud %, precipitation)
Recommended start time (optimized for best summit weather window)
Summit conditions + warnings (high wind, precipitation, low visibility)

Descent

Conditions at summit, midpoint, and camp during return
Warnings for afternoon weather changes (thunderstorms, wind, whiteout)

Verification

NOAA/NWS hourly forecast at summit (automatic for US)
Mountain-Forecast.com summit forecast (when --peak is specified or auto-detected from route)

Key Options

Flag	Description
`--route <id>`	Named route from database
`--gpx <file>`	GPX file path
`--trailhead-ft` / `--summit-ft` / `--distance-mi`	Simple mode
`--summit-lat` / `--summit-lng`	Summit coordinates (for simple mode or NOAA)
`--date YYYY-MM-DD`	Target date (start date for multi-day)
`--pace elite\|moderate\|amateur`	Pace profile
`--start-hour N`	Override start hour (0-23)
`--peak <name>`	Mountain-forecast.com verification
`--json`	JSON output
`--list-routes`	Show all named routes
`--actual-start HH:MM`	Post-trip calibration
`--actual-summit HH:MM`	Post-trip calibration
`--mf-verify <peak>`	Standalone mountain-forecast check

Agent Behavior

Parse the user's intent: route name, date, pace, whether they have a GPX
Map natural language to flags:
- "Rainier DC" → --route rainier-dc
- "Saturday" → calculate the date
- "I'm slow" → --pace amateur
- "start at 2 AM" → --start-hour 2
Run the script and present the formatted output
Highlight key decisions: Is the weather good enough? Should they wait a day? Mention the confidence level.
For comparisons ("Saturday or Sunday?"): run both dates and compare summit conditions
Post-trip: when user reports times, run calibration and confirm their pace factor

Limitations

Open-Meteo underestimates summit winds by 30-50% and can be ±2-4°C on temperature. Always cross-reference with NOAA and Mountain-Forecast.
Mountain-Forecast.com is scraped HTML — may break if they change their page layout.
Route database only covers PNW peaks. Users can add their own GPX for any mountain worldwide.
Terrain auto-detection from slope works best with dense GPX trackpoints. Sparse GPX (few points) may misclassify.
NOAA is US-only. International climbs get Open-Meteo + Mountain-Forecast only.