society-in-silico

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原始内容

# Society in Silico

*Simulating futures to build the one we want.*

A book about economic simulation, the journey from academic models to open policy
infrastructure, and what the agent era changes. By Max Ghenis.

## About

The book traces microsimulation from Guy Orcutt's 1957 vision through the
institutional era (CBO, JCT, IFS), the open-source turn (OpenFisca,
Tax-Calculator, PolicyEngine), and the agent turn — AI systems encoding law as
verified code at scale — to the prediction pole and the speculative horizon. Its
discipline, stated in chapter 3 and enforced throughout: a simulation is
admissible only where its verification chain terminates in ground truth.

Seventeen chapters in five parts:

1. **The closed stack** — origins, the tax model wars, the accuracy question,
   and the personal story that started it
2. **The open engine** — the PolicyEngine years
3. **The agent turn** — encoding the law, the verification problem,
   microsimulation anywhere, and the decomposition
4. **The prediction pole** — the uncertainty gap and the scoreboard; simulating
   opinion
5. **The horizon** — simulating democracy, simulating values, and the return to
   the fork in the road

## Structure

```
_quarto.yml           # Canonical TOC + build config
index.md              # Landing page
manuscript/
  front-matter/       # Preface, introduction
  part-1-closed-stack/
  part-2-open-engine/
  part-3-agent-turn/
  part-4-prediction/
  part-5-horizon/
references.bib        # BibTeX bibliography (Pandoc [@key] citations)
reviews/              # Dated review rounds; 2026-07-10T1227/ holds the
                      #   from-scratch design, fact sheet, and style notes
research/             # Concept notes, people, timeline (Obsidian wiki-links)
feedback/             # Earlier reader-persona reviews
website/              # Read-online site (Astro), driven by _quarto.yml
scripts/, src/        # Analysis helpers and the audiobook/concept pipeline
```

`[NEEDS CITATION: …]` and `[VERIFY: …]` markers in the manuscript are
deliberate — they mark claims awaiting source resolution. Resolve them; don't
delete them.

## Building

```bash
make serve   # Local Quarto preview
make build   # Static HTML book
make pdf     # PDF
make epub    # EPUB
make docx    # DOCX
make check   # Knowledge-layer linter
```

`make check` — concept-introduction order, retired names, marker census,
code-block provenance. Runs `scripts/check_book.py` (stdlib + PyYAML) and exits
non-zero on failure; the concept order and code-block rules are enforced from
`research/concepts/registry.yml`.

## Workflow

- **Quarto** is the build system; `_quarto.yml` is the single source of truth
  for chapter order.
- **Obsidian**: open the repo as a vault for the `research/` wiki-links.
- **AI assistants**: read `.claude/CLAUDE.md` first — it carries the voice
  rules, citation standards, and the retired-names list; the canonical fact
  sheet for claims about the author's projects is
  `reviews/2026-07-10T1227/rewrite-facts.md`.

## License

Text © Max Ghenis, licensed CC BY-NC 4.0 (see LICENSE).

Society in Silico

Simulating futures to build the one we want.

A book about economic simulation, the journey from academic models to open policy infrastructure, and what the agent era changes. By Max Ghenis.

About

The book traces microsimulation from Guy Orcutt's 1957 vision through the institutional era (CBO, JCT, IFS), the open-source turn (OpenFisca, Tax-Calculator, PolicyEngine), and the agent turn — AI systems encoding law as verified code at scale — to the prediction pole and the speculative horizon. Its discipline, stated in chapter 3 and enforced throughout: a simulation is admissible only where its verification chain terminates in ground truth.

Seventeen chapters in five parts:

The closed stack — origins, the tax model wars, the accuracy question, and the personal story that started it
The open engine — the PolicyEngine years
The agent turn — encoding the law, the verification problem, microsimulation anywhere, and the decomposition
The prediction pole — the uncertainty gap and the scoreboard; simulating opinion
The horizon — simulating democracy, simulating values, and the return to the fork in the road

Structure

_quarto.yml           # Canonical TOC + build config
index.md              # Landing page
manuscript/
  front-matter/       # Preface, introduction
  part-1-closed-stack/
  part-2-open-engine/
  part-3-agent-turn/
  part-4-prediction/
  part-5-horizon/
references.bib        # BibTeX bibliography (Pandoc [@key] citations)
reviews/              # Dated review rounds; 2026-07-10T1227/ holds the
                      #   from-scratch design, fact sheet, and style notes
research/             # Concept notes, people, timeline (Obsidian wiki-links)
feedback/             # Earlier reader-persona reviews
website/              # Read-online site (Astro), driven by _quarto.yml
scripts/, src/        # Analysis helpers and the audiobook/concept pipeline

[NEEDS CITATION: …] and [VERIFY: …] markers in the manuscript are deliberate — they mark claims awaiting source resolution. Resolve them; don't delete them.

Building

make serve   # Local Quarto preview
make build   # Static HTML book
make pdf     # PDF
make epub    # EPUB
make docx    # DOCX
make check   # Knowledge-layer linter

make check — concept-introduction order, retired names, marker census, code-block provenance. Runs scripts/check_book.py (stdlib + PyYAML) and exits non-zero on failure; the concept order and code-block rules are enforced from research/concepts/registry.yml.

Workflow

Quarto is the build system; _quarto.yml is the single source of truth for chapter order.
Obsidian: open the repo as a vault for the research/ wiki-links.
AI assistants: read .claude/CLAUDE.md first — it carries the voice rules, citation standards, and the retired-names list; the canonical fact sheet for claims about the author's projects is reviews/2026-07-10T1227/rewrite-facts.md.